If not Leni, who will take on Sara in 2028?

By Carlito Pablo

Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo has ruled out running for president of the Philippines.

The move has raised questions on who may take on Sara Duterte, the frontrunner among potential presidential candidates in the 2028 national election.

A Duterte presidency would usher in the restoration of the Duterte family’s dominance in Philippine politics, which was embodied by its patriarch Rodrigo.

Rodrigo Duterte, who served as Philippine president from 2016 to 2022, is currently held in prison in The Hague. He is facing charges of crimes against humanity before the International Criminal Court (ICC).

A recent survey shows that Robredo, a former vice president, has started to narrow the lead of Sara Duterte, an indication that 2028 could be a competitive race.

Analysts have earlier suggested that forming a unified bloc, with the support of current President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and with Robredo as standard bearer, is the only way to defeat Duterte, who is currently Vice President of the country..

Now mayor of the city of Naga, Robredo ran for president in 2022 and was defeated by Marcos. At the time, Marcos and Sara Duterte were allies.

“I am certain about myself that I will no longer run for any national position,” Robredo said in a report by the Philippine Daily Inquirer.

The Inquirer newspaper was reporting on her interview in the Bicol language with RMN dwNX Naga radio.

“I am aware that some still want me to run… [But] now, it is far from my horizon to return to national politics,” Robredo said in the newspaper’s report.

Senator Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan ran as Robredo’s vice presidential candidate in 2022, but lost to Sara Duterte.

Pangilinan expressed concern that without Robredo, anti-Duterte forces could fragment and lose the 2028 election.

“I hope I am wrong but Leni’s refusal to run, may create a leadership vacuum that I am afraid cannot be adequately filled by other contenders, this in turn could lead to disunity amongst our ranks & the splintering of not just our forces but of all potential allies outside our ranks,” the senator said in a social media post that was reported on by the Politiko.com site.

“The net effect willl be the fielding of various political parties & groups of their respective Presidential bets, further weakening our chances and delivering victory to our adversaries,” Pangilinan added.

Pangilinan argued that that a united opposition is key to winning 2028, Politiko.com reported.

Weighing in on Robredo’s pronouncement that she will simply seek a second term as Naga city mayor, Chel Dioko, a party-list representative with the Akbayan group in the House of Representatives, said that anti-Duterte forces need to field only one presidential candidate in 2028.

Diokno, however, noted in an interview with DZMM radio that it might still be too early to say how the political landscape may take shape.

Matthew David Ordonez, a political science lecturer at De La Salle University, reflected on the challenge facing anti-Duterte forces in a report by the South China Morning Post newspaper.

“Either they find a figure as unifying as Leni Robredo, or they build a stronger network based on a more cohesive, integrated platform to counter the Duterte faction,” Ordonez said.

Winning 2028 may be complex than having a unified standard bearer.

“The opposition will need to go back to the drawing board and find a new unifying ideology. They cannot win on personality politics alone,” Ordonez said in the South China Morning Post report.

Reporting on the same radio interview by Robredo, GMA News Online cited names mentioned by the former vice president as possible candidates for president.

These include Pangilinan and two other senators: Ana Theresia “Risa” Hontiveros and Paolo Benigno “Bam” Aquino IV.

Robredo also mentioned Pasig City mayor Vico Sotto and Quezon City Mayor Joy Belmonte. Now in his 30’s, Sotto in 2028 will not yet be 40 years olds, which means he cannot meet the minimum age set by the Philippine Constitution for presidential candidates.

A 2026 first quarter survey by OCTA Research on preferred presidential candidates in 2028 shows Sara Duterte still in the lead, but with a five-point drop from a previous poll. Meanwhile, Robredo gained 13 percent, coming second place.

Manila City Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso came in third, followed by Senator Rafael “Raffy” Tulfo in fourth and Senator Bam Aquino in fifth.

If Robredo doesn’t change her mind, it will be a tough battle for anti-Duterte forces, according to Maria Ela Atienza, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines.

“She is the most credible and popular among the anti-Duterte, anti-Marcos, anti-trapo voters compared to other opposition figures,” Atienza said in the Inquirer newspaper report.

“They need to get their act together,” Atienza also said. “It is an uphill battle, but they need to learn the lessons from 2022. Start early, unite, and offer the electorate tangible and practical policy and program alternatives given the problems the country is facing.”