Two upcoming ICC judgments could seal fate of Duterte

By Carlito Pablo

Is former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte resigned to his fate?

Detained for more than a year at a jail by the International Criminal Court (ICC) near The Hague in Netherlands, the ex-leader seems to have accepted his lot.

“I was a faithful servant of the people, and that is how I wish to be remembered. I have now accepted my fate, and I realize I could die in prison,” his lawyer Nicholas Kaufman quoted Duterte in the former’s closing remarks at an ICC hearing.

That was on February 27, 2026, the last of four days of hearing by the ICC to confirm whether to proceed with the trial of Duterte on charges of crimes against humanity.

The charges against Duterte are in connection with his bloody war against drugs during his time as mayor of Davao City and later as president of the Philippines.

The tribunal is expected to render its decision on the confirmation of charges within 60 days of the end of the hearing on February 27, which means a judgment may be released on or before April 28.

There are three possible outcomes that the ICC pre-trial chamber could arrive at:

• Find sufficient evidence, confirm the charges, and commit Duterte to trial;
• Find insufficient evidence, decline to confirm the charges, and stop the proceedings against Duterte; 
• Adjourn the hearing and request the ICC prosecutor to provide further evidence, conduct further investigations, or amend any charge for which the evidence submitted appears to establish a crime.

Duterte marked his 81st birthday on March 28 in jail, his second birthday in the ICC detention facility.

The former Philippine president was arrested in Manila on March 11, 2025. He was flown to The Hague and turned over to the ICC the following day.

Duterte is accused of three counts of crimes against humanity of murder and attempted murder involving 78 victims in 49 incidents.

The crimes allegedly happened during his term as Davao mayor from 2013 to 2016, and from 2016 to 2018 when he was president.

During his time as president, the Philippines in 2018 withdrew from the Rome Statute, the international treaty that created the ICC. The withdrawal became formal in 2019.

Before the ICC’s anticipated ruling on the confirmation of charges on or before April 28, an appeals chamber of the tribunal is set to decide on April 22 on Duterte’s challenge to the ICC jurisdiction over him.

A report by the BusinessWorld newspaper quoted a legal analyst saying that the withdrawal of the Philippines from the Rome Statute may not favour Duterte.

Duterte’s legal team has argued that the ICC had no jurisdiction because its formal investigation into the former leader’s alleged crimes was authorized only in 2021, which was two years after the Philippines withdrew from the Rome Statute.

The BusinessWorld report recalled that an ICC pre-trial chamber rejected the argument, stating that a withdrawal does not affect any matter under consideration before the withdrawal.

The report quoted Ephraim B. Cortez, president of the National Union of People’s Lawyers, who expressed confidence that the appeals chamber would uphold this line.

“The ICC will definitely rule in favor of the Prosecution,” Cortez said. “There is no basis in the argument that the ICC can no longer take cognizance of the case since the authority to investigate was issued only in 2021.”

“We have to consider that the Prosecutor initiated the preliminary examination into the Philippine situation in February 2018, more than a year before the Philippines’ withdrawal from the ICC became effective,” he said.

Cortez added in the BusinessWorld report that the withdrawal itself was a response to the ICC’s initial actions of looking into Duterte’s alleged crimes.

“The withdrawal was a reaction to the initiation of the preliminary examination,” Cortez said. “But the withdrawal came in too late, since the proceedings had been initiated through the preliminary examination, and the jurisdiction of the ICC had already attached.”

Duterte’s daughter Sara Duterte is currently Vice President of the Philippines. She is considered to be the frontrunner among potential candidates for next president in the 2028 national election.

Vice President Duterte is currently subject to impeachment proceedings before the House of Representatives. If the House finds enough evidence and votes to impeach, she will face trial before the Senate.

Sara Duterte is facing allegations of misusing public funds and threatening to assassinate President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., his wife Liza Araneta, and cousin Ferdinand Martin Rumualdez, who at the time was Speaker of the House.

If convicted, she will be disqualified from holding government office, which means she will be out of contention for the 2028 presidency.