Sara may survive impeachment but 2028 win not certain: analyst

By Carlito Pablo

The impeachment trial of Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte opened on May 18 in what could be her biggest political test yet.

Depending on the outcome, Duterte may either find herself removed from office and perpetually banned from government or emerge stronger as the likely successor of erstwhile ally and now arch nemesis, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

With her allies in control over the Senate, which has convened as an impeachment court, the vice president will likely prevail in the trial, but at what price?

“Surviving the impeachment is not victory. If anything, an acquittal may prove pyrrhic or one that comes at an enormous cost,” wrote Andrew J. Masigan, a political columnist with the Philippine Star.

As a side note, Masigan’s piece titled “Why Sara Duterte is not a shoo-in for 2028” was published on April 29, days before Duterte’s allies took over the Senate leadership on May 11.

Conviction requires a two-thirds vote or 16 out of the 24 senators. Duterte needs nine to survive; her supporters number 13.

While Duterte continues to lead the field among potential presidential contenders for 2028, her fortunes appear to be on a decline.

“Trials do not merely determine guilt – they define narratives. And narrative is where Duterte is most vulnerable,” Masigan wrote.

In particular, the Philippine Star columnist noted a “narrative flip” arising from recent revelations of unexplained wealth by Duterte and her spouse Manases Carpio.

“Bank records showing P6.77 billion passing through the accounts linked to Sara Duterte and Manases Carpio were enough to turn off millions of Filipinos. It revealed true colors, shook public confidence and reinforced festering allegations of corruption.”

Masigan also noted that Duterte’s approval ratings have “not held up”. 

“From highs approaching 70 percent in 2023-2024, they have settled into the low-50s range. While still high, it is a diminishing. Historical data show that once approval  ratings fall below the mid-50s, they rarely recover without a major reset. The presidency is never won from a position of decline.

“This is precisely what makes the 2028 presidential race competitive rather than decisive,” Masigan stated.

Masigan also looked at Duterte’s “stable base of supporters”.

“In her case, that floor sits around 25-35 percent, anchored by Mindanao. Voters there remain deeply invested in the Duterte brand. This base is unlikely to erode, even amid scandals.

“But will 25-35 percent be enough?” Masigan asked.

“Duterte will dominate Mindanao, likely securing 75+ percent of the vote. But Mindanao accounts for only a quarter of the national electorate. To win nationally, she must dominate elsewhere. In Luzon – home to over half of all voters – is where the good governance candidate will secure the majority, particularly in urban centers and among younger voters. The Visayas, historically fluid, is likely to tilt toward reform if corruption remains a salient issue.

“As of today, a plausible distribution looks like this: Duterte wins Mindanao overwhelmingly but loses Luzon and splits the Visayas. In a two-way race, that arithmetic favors her opponent,” Masigan explained.

And then there’s the Marcos factor.

With the Marcoses facing an “existential threat” should Duterte win 2928, the Marcos machinery will “not align with Duterte”.

“No doubt, government will deploy its considerable resources – organizational, financial and logistical – in favor of Sara’s opponent,” Masigan wrote.

Duterte is facing four articles of impeachment, one of which stemmed from her threat to assassinate President Marcos, his wife Liza Araneta, and his cousin and then House Speaker Martin Romualdez.

The three other articles of impeachment involve alleged misuse of P612.5 million in confidential government funds, failure to properly disclose assets and bank transactions in her Statement of Assets, Liabilities and Net Worth, and bribery during her term as Cabinet secretary of education.

In his Philippine Star column, Masigan noted that the electoral math in the Philippines has changed.

“The Philippines is no longer driven by personalities alone. Issues now matter. Corruption is currently the second biggest concern of the electorate, only after cost of living. A decade of corrupt, incompetent and weak leaders have raised demands for reform. This is especially true among the youth, middle class and voters in Luzon and the Visayas. They comprise the decisive blocs,” Masigan wrote.

According to Masigan, a “good governance” candidate can give Duterte a tough fight in 2028.

“In terms of positioning, we can expect a striking contrast between Duterte and the good governance candidate. While Duterte will have no choice but to maintain a defensive stance and play the victim, her opponent will focus on the future and what could be – transparency, accountability and competent leadership. With corruption as a top voter concern, this contrast will shape the election outcome,” Masigan wrote.