Sara impeachment trial puts Philippine democratic institutions to the test: analyst

By Carlito Pablo

The impeachment trial of Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte started on July 6, 2026, in what one analyst says is a test of the credibility of democratic institutions in the Asian country.

Writing for the online Asia Sentinel publication, Manila-based observer Tita Valderama noted that the stakes “extend far beyond Duterte’s political survival”.

The ongoing trial at the Senate is also a test of the “resilience of Philippine democratic institutions and their ability to function independently amid deep political polarization”.

“Ultimately, this impeachment is testing two questions at once: whether Sara Duterte remains fit to hold public office, and whether Philippine democratic institutions are strong enough to decide that question through evidence, due process and the rule of law.

“The answer will shape not only the 2028 presidential race but also public confidence in Philippine democracy for years to come,” Valderama wrote in her July 6, 2026 piece.

If convicted by senator-judges, Duterte faces removal from office and perpetual disqualification from running in an election, which takes her out of the 2028 presidential race to replace current President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

Marcos and Duterte ran as a ticket in the 2022 national elections, but their alliance quickly fractured.

In 2025, Duterte’s father Rodrigo, whom Marcos succeeded as president, was arrested in Manila and flown to The Hague in Netherlands to face charges of alleged crimes against humanity before the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Duterte has publicly stated that she has contracted an assassin to kill Marcos, his wife and a cousin, a declaration that now constitutes one of four impeachment charges against her.

To reach conviction, two-thirds of the 24 senator-judges or 16 must reach a guilty verdict against Duterte.

In her Asia Sentinel piece, Valderama noted that the Senate “carries perhaps the greatest burden”.

“Its legitimacy will rest not on whether Duterte is convicted or acquitted but on whether Filipinos believe the verdict was reached fairly and strictly according to law,” Valderama stated.

In her piece titled “Duterte Impeachment Puts 2028 Race — and Philippine Institutions — on Trial”, the analyst noted two competing narratives about the trial.

One narrative speaks about the need for accountability of officials like Duterte, who is facing charges of misusing public funds, bribery, and amassing unexplained wealth, in addition to the alleged threat to the life of Marcos.

The counter-narrative has characterized Duterte’s impeachment as a move to take her out as the leading contender for next president in 2028.

Duterte has denied the allegations against her.

“The Senate’s credibility will therefore depend less on the final verdict than on whether Filipinos believe every witness was fairly examined, every piece of evidence properly weighed and every ruling anchored in the Constitution rather than partisan calculation,” Valderama wrote.

Duterte allies are firmly entrenched in the Senate, and reaching the two-thirds vote threshold to convict could be difficult.

In an explainer piece on July 6, 2026, The Guardian quoted Maria Ela Atienza, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines, saying that there is a 50-50 chance for Duterte to be convicted, given the current composition of the Senate.

Atienza noted that evidence and public opinion will also weigh in when senator-judges make up their mind about the charges.

Meanwhile, the ICC trial of Duterte’s father Rodrigo for crimes in connection with his war against drugs is scheduled to start in The Hague in November 2026.

Writing previously for the Manila Times in a piece titled “The Duterte dynasty’s hardest battle”, Valderama noted that the once powerful Duterte clan is “fighting for political survival”.

“But Filipinos, too, are engaged in a larger struggle, one for honest government, clean leadership, and respect for the rule of law,” Valderama noted.

Duterte’s impeachment trial before the Senate is expected to last for a few months.