Now within striking distance of Sara, will Leni reconsider 2028?

By Carlito Pablo

She’s closing the gap, but she needs to make the jump.

Will Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo change her mind about staying away from Philippine presidential race in 2028?

Recent polls show Robredo, now mayor of the City of Naga, within striking distance of steady frontrunner Sara Duterte.

Currently vice president of the country, Duterte is facing impeachment trial before the Philippine Senate. Charges against her include corruption, bribery, and threats to assassinate Philippine President Ferdinand “BBM” Marcos Jr.

A former vice president, Robredo has repeatedly indicated that she will not seek the presidency in 2028, preferring instead to run for a second term as mayor of Naga.

Her allies are hoping she will reconsider.

“We’ll give Vice President Leni her space… [but] we are hoping that sometime this year, or early next year, that she would change her mind,” Erin Tanada, president of the Liberal Party, told the Philippine Daily Inquirer.

The Liberal Party is one of the oldest political parties in the country, and it remains an influential player in Philippine politics.

“We’re still hoping because it’s still early,” Tanada said the Inquirer article published on May 5, 2026.

The newspaper sought Tanada following reports of the results of a Pulse Asia Research Inc. survey commissioned by the office of Senator Juan Miguel “Migz” Zubiri.

The February 27 to March 2 poll showed Robredo trailing Duterte by single digits or eight points.

Duterte led Robredo 51 percent to 43 percent, an indication that the latter is a competitive contender for the 2028 presidency.

A Philippine Star newspaper report on May 5, 2026 noted that a different poll done by WR Numero in 2024 had Duterte at a commanding 36 percent compared to Robredo’s nine percent.

The Star report related per Pulse Asia’s survey, Duterte’s support is mainly based in Mindanao, where she led Robredo 93 percent to six percent. Robredo led in Luzon and Metro Manila. Duterte led in the Visayas.

On May 30, 2026, the Star published a story about another poll, which also shows that Robredo has a shot of winning 2028.

In this Pulse Asia survey commissioned by the Stratbase group and conducted from May 3 to 7, Robredo garnered 41 percent support, while Duterte led with 51 percent. Eight percent were undecided or refused to answer.

Stratbase Group founder Victor Andres “Dindo” Manhit said in the Star report that the survey results underscore the need for a “solid and united opposition”.

Manhit’s view echoes suggestions that anti-Duterte forces, including the camp of President Marcos, should back a single candidate to take on Duterte.

Duterte’s impeachment trial is scheduled to begin in July 2026. If convicted, she will be removed and disqualified from running for public office.

However, her supporters recently took over control of the Senate, which will try the charges against the vice president.

Manila Standard columnist Rudy Romero wrote in his May 25, 2026 piece that given the present makeup of the Senate, it is “conceivable that Sara Duterte will be acquitted”.

However, Romero reasoned, Duterte “in 2028 she will be tried, at the ballot box, by millions of Filipinos who are poor and are sick and tired of corruption, abuse of office and non-accountability”.

“If acquitted, by the Senate, can Sara Duterte win the 2028 election? Highly unlikely,” Romero contended.

A South China Morning Post story on May 28, 2026 quoted a couple of pollsters indicating that Duterte’s lead over Robredo is not insurmountable.

Ranjit Rye, founding president of OCTA Research, and Ronnie Holmes, president of Pulse Asia, said in the report that Duterte is vulnerable in Metro Manila and Luzon.

The two regions account for half of the nation’s more than 68 million registered voters, Rye and Holmes noted.

The same South China Morning Post article quoted Robredo’s former spokesman Barry Gutierrez about what could make Robredo change her mind.

“Honestly, I think she has to go through her own process,” Gutierrez responded. “If she changes her mind, it will not be due to someone else telling her to, it will be because she came to a realisation in her own time.”