By Carlito Pablo
Sara Duterte doesn’t have to win a majority of votes become the next president of the Philippines in 2028.
All that needs to happen is for the two political blocs represented by the camp of current President Ferdinand “BBM” Marcos Jr. and the Opposition not to strike a strategic alliance.
This is how political analyst Antonio Contreras sees a potential outcome of the 2028 presidential contest.
Contreras is a professor at the University of the Philippines, and he writes a regular column for the Manila Times newspaper.
In a recent column, Contreras noted that there are “three major blocs heading into 2028: the Duterte bloc anchored on Sara; the Marcos bloc, which will field its own candidate since President Marcos is term-limited; and the Opposition bloc, an uneasy coalition of liberals, progressives and the divided Left”.
“Here is the arithmetic many refuse to confront: if both the Marcos bloc and the Opposition put forward their own candidates, Sara Duterte can win even with just 30 percent of the vote. She does not need a majority. She only needs her minority to remain cohesive while the other blocs tear each other apart.”
Contreras’s article is titled “The hate triangle that could elect a nightmare”, and it was published on December 6, 2025.
Contreras suggested that a “mutual assured defeat becomes the most likely 2028 scenario” for Duterte’s opponents.
“The Marcos bloc will field someone because they always do; they have machinery and muscle memory. The Opposition will field someone because they believe they must stand for their values and refuse absorption. And the Duterte bloc will field Sara because she remains their only anchor. With three substantial candidates, the vote splits, and the most united minority, Sara’s DDS [Duterte Diehard Supporters], wins with perhaps only a third of the electorate.”
Filipinos not wishing to see a Duterte presidency should “confront an uncomfortable truth”.
“The Marcos loyalists must learn to coexist politically with the Pinks, Yellows, Reds and everyone in between,” Contreras wrote.
As well, liberals, progressives, and leftist entities like Makabayan and Akbayan must “abandon political purism long enough to acknowledge that their internal fissures only empower their shared adversary”.
“Whether they admit it or not, Marcos loyalists, Liberal Progressives, Akbayan and Makabayan are united in one thing: they all distrust or outright despise Sara Duterte.”
There is one “most important strategic task for anyone who genuinely wants to prevent a Sara Duterte presidency”.
That is, “find or create a candidate acceptable to Marcos loyalists, Liberal Progressives, Akbayan and Makabayan. Someone not defined by the old Marcos-Anti-Marcos binary. Someone capable of bridging emotional divides maintained for far too long.”
According to Contreras, this task is possible because Marcos is not eligible to run for another term as president in 2028.
“This removes the single greatest emotional barrier to coalition-building. If BBM were still running, unity between Marcos loyalists and the Opposition would be unthinkable. But since he is not, the field is open in ways unseen in decades.”
On December 11, 2025, the Manila Times published another column by Contreras titled “Why claims of ‘Duterte 2.0’ are analytically unsound”.
“The future is not foretold. It is being contested in real time, by actors whose strategies, alliances and contradictions will continue to evolve. A Duterte return is possible, but it is not inevitable. To assume inevitability is to misunderstand the very nature of our politics, its volatility, its nonlinear pathways and its history of unexpected realignments,” Contreras noted.
“The landscape today presents vulnerabilities for the administration, yes, but vulnerability is not automatically strength for the Dutertes. The path ahead remains open, shaped not by prophecy but by the unfolding, unpredictable dance of Philippine political life.”
ReyFort Media 
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