Sara Duterte appears unstoppable in 2028

By Carlito Pablo

She has consistently topped surveys among potential candidates for next president of the Philippines.

With impeachment out of the way — at least for now — Sara Duterte appears to have a lock on the 2028 presidential election.

Going by the results of a recent poll, she will dominate the field and lead the revival of the Duterte dynasty.

WR Numero Research, a public opinion firm, conducted a poll from July 29 to August 6, 2025, and results show Duterte holding a significant lead over her rivals.

Currently the country’s vice president, Duterte secured 31.4 percent of support from respondents nationwide.

Her solid regional bases make her a formidable contender: 66 percent in Mindanao and 31 percent in the Visayas.

Duterte’s closest rivals in the presidential race, former vice president and current Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo, and Senator Raffy Tulfo, polled at 13.3 percent and 10.3 percent, respectively.

Duterte scored a major legal victory on July 25, 2025 after the Supreme Court struck down an impeachment complaint against her.

The high tribunal ruled that the impeachment of Duterte was unconstitutional for violating the one-year bar to the filing of more than one complaint.

On August 6, the Senate, voting 19-4-1, approved a resolution to archive the articles of impeachment against Duterte.

Julio Teehankee is a political science professor with the De La Salle University, and he believes that senators have already made up their minds on who they will support in the 2028 presidential election.

“The political calculations is – tumataya na sila sa llamado [they are already betting on the one with the upper hand],” Teehankee said in a report by ABS-CBN, in reference to Duterte.

The Duterte dynasty was dealt a body in March 2025 with the arrest of its patriarch, former president Rodrigo Duterte.

The elder Duterte was arrested based on a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged crimes against humanity.

The former president is currently detailed at an ICC facility in The Hague, Netherlands, where he awaits trial.

Antonio Contreras is a professor at the University of the Philippines, and he writes a column with the Manila Times newspaper.

In a recent piece titled “The myth of an unstoppable Sara Duterte”, Contreras noted that the “political drumbeat has begun for 2028, and already some are ready to crown Vice President Sara Duterte as the inevitable successor to Malacañang”.

Referencing the results of the recent WR Numero survey, Contreras wrote that the “numbers tell a more complicated story, one that should make those banking on Duterte’s ‘invincibility’ to think twice”. 

“Her so-called lead is fragile, built more on the solid loyalty of her Mindanao and Duterte base than on a broad, unbeatable national coalition. And the sooner her opponents understand this, the better their chances of preventing a repeat of the fractured opposition disaster of 2022.”

Contreras noted that there is one reason to be learned from the 2022 election, when a fragmented opposition paved the way to the landslide victory of now President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and running mate Duterte. The Marcos-Duterte alliance unravelled soon after the election.

“The WR Numero poll already shows how this could repeat. Robredo commands 13 percent, Tulfo 10 percent and the rest are all in single digits. If these numbers hold and multiple candidates run, Duterte’s 31 percent can coast to victory without ever expanding her coalition. It does not matter that 69 percent of voters currently prefer someone else. If they are scattered, she wins.

“This is why the narrative that Duterte is unbeatable is not just wrong. It is dangerous if it breeds resignation among voters and potential challengers. It is also dangerous if ambitious wannabes would think they can beat her even in a crowded race.

Contreras believes that a unified opposition can take on Duterte in 2028.

“The hard political truth is this. Only one challenger can face Duterte in 2028 with a realistic shot at winning. Those with presidential aspirations need to reflect now, not in late 2027, on whether they are truly winnable. If they are not, they must have the political maturity to step aside and unite behind a single, viable standard-bearer. The electorate has seen enough of ego-driven campaigns that end in bitter defeat,” Contreras wrote.

Based on the ruling by the Supreme Court, a new impeachment complaint can be filed against Duterte in February 2026. A conviction will bar her from seeking public office.

A recent report by the Manila Bulletin quoted former senator Antonio Trillanes IV saying that Senator Risa Hontiveros is the strongest and most qualified opposition candidate who could possibly go up against Duterte in the 2028 presidential elections.